Since the summer, the question I hear most from buyers looking at Palm Jumeirah is a simple one: has the island cooled? The headline figures for the third quarter look as if it has. The median price per sq ft across all registered sales fell, and so did the number of deals compared with a year ago. But a headline median can mislead when the mix of what sold changes, and this quarter the mix changed a great deal. So I went back to the registered sales from July to September and separated them out.
The headline: fewer sales, a lower median
Palm Jumeirah recorded 230 registered sales in the third quarter of 2026, at a median of AED 3,000 per sq ft. In the second quarter there were 238 sales at AED 3,650 per sq ft, and in the third quarter of 2025 there were 395 sales at AED 3,350 per sq ft.
Read on their own, those numbers suggest a market that slowed sharply over the year and then dropped 17.8% in price over three months. I do not think that is what happened, and the split between new and resale homes explains why.
What actually changed: the mix
On the Palm, primary sales (homes bought directly from the developer) and resales are two very different markets. Primary sales on the island are concentrated in new branded and ultra-prime towers, and their monthly medians this year have sat between roughly AED 5,000 and AED 6,700 per sq ft. Resales cover everything from studios in older buildings to signature villas, and their monthly medians have sat far lower.
In the second quarter, 73 of the 238 sales were primary. In the third quarter, only 47 of the 230 were. Over the same period, resales rose from 165 to 183. When fewer of the most expensive homes per sq ft are registered, the overall median falls, even if no individual home has become cheaper.
- Primary sales: 73 in Q2, 47 in Q3. Monthly medians in Q3 of AED 5,034, 5,079 and 5,503 per sq ft.
- Resales: 165 in Q2, 183 in Q3. Monthly medians in Q3 of AED 2,653, 2,356 and 2,651 per sq ft, against AED 2,579, 3,169 and 2,421 in Q2.
The resale range in the third quarter sits inside the range of the second. That is a market holding its level, with ordinary month-to-month noise, rather than one falling. Primary pricing did come in below the spring months, but with 11 to 22 primary sales a month, a single tower's launch phase can move that median on its own, so I would not read a trend into it yet.
The longer view
Over the last twelve months, Palm Jumeirah recorded 1,299 sales, 22% fewer than in the twelve months before. The median price per sq ft over the same twelve months was AED 3,560, up 15.4%. For context, the Dubai-wide median over that period was AED 1,729 per sq ft. Fewer transactions at higher prices is what you would expect on an island with very little new land: the stock that trades is increasingly the larger, better-finished homes.
At the top end, the resale market remained active. In the third quarter there were 17 four-bedroom resales at a median of AED 31 million, 10 five-bedroom resales at a median of AED 46.9 million, and 6 six-bedroom resales at a median of AED 51.5 million. Those are small numbers, and each figure covers a wide range of sizes, but they show that buyers at this level did not step away over the summer.
Supply is the part I watch most closely. The data shows 18 projects and 2,812 units still to come on the island. As new buildings launch and complete, primary registrations will rise again, and the headline median will likely move back up with them, for the same mix reason it moved down this quarter.
What I would take from it
If you are buying, the third quarter was not a correction, but it was a quieter quarter for new launches, and resale sellers had less competition from developers. That tends to be a good moment to negotiate on the resale side, particularly for homes that have been on the market since spring. Compare per sq ft only like with like: building with building, view with view, finished with unfinished.
If you are selling, the summer did not change the level of comparable resales. Price from the evidence in your own building and its direct neighbours, not from the island-wide median, which this quarter was pulled down by the absence of expensive new stock rather than by falling values.
For owners holding to let, the area's gross yield over the last year was 6%, and my Rental Index tracks rents at One at Palm and The Lana each month. Past rents do not guarantee future income.
If you would like the figures for a specific building, send me a private enquiry.
Source: Dubai Land Department registered sales via DXB Interact market data, accessed 9 October 2026. Quarter figures cover 1 July to 30 September 2026; twelve-month figures are trailing to 9 October 2026. Medians are of price per sq ft unless stated. Bedroom medians are for resales only. Figures are aggregates, not valuations.