Has Business Bay gone quiet? On the headline numbers, it looks that way. Look one layer down and the picture is more useful than the headline: the quarter was quiet for new launches, not for people buying finished homes.
The headline: fewer sales, lower price per sq ft
Business Bay, which includes the Marasi Bay waterfront, registered 1,297 sales in the third quarter of 2026 at a median of AED 2,140 per sq ft. In the same quarter of 2025 it registered 4,557 sales at AED 2,600 per sq ft. That is roughly 72% fewer transactions and an 18% lower median price per sq ft.
Against the second quarter of 2026 (1,438 sales at AED 2,550 per sq ft), volume was about 10% lower and the median fell by around 16%. Read on its own, that would suggest prices had turned sharply. I do not think that is what the data shows.
Off-plan explains most of the drop
When I separate off-plan sales from resales, the story changes. Off-plan registrations fell from 3,364 in the third quarter of 2025 to 362 this year, a drop of about 89%. Last year's third quarter was unusually heavy with launches; this year's was light.
Off-plan stock in Business Bay sells at a higher price per sq ft than older completed buildings. The off-plan median this quarter was AED 2,910 per sq ft, against AED 2,730 a year earlier. So when off-plan falls from roughly three quarters of the market to under a third, the overall median falls with it, even if no individual building has become cheaper. It is a change in what sold, more than a change in what things are worth.
Resale held up
The resale market is where I look to judge real demand for finished homes. In the third quarter of 2026 there were 935 resales at a median of AED 1,910 per sq ft. A year earlier there were 1,193 at AED 1,870 per sq ft.
- Resale volume: down about 22% year on year, but up about 23% on the second quarter (758 resales).
- Resale price per sq ft: about 2% higher than a year ago, and about 9% below the second quarter's AED 2,100.
- Off-plan share: in September, around a third of sales were off-plan and two thirds were resales.
I would not read too much into the quarter-on-quarter dip in resale pricing. The mix of resales shifts from quarter to quarter between studios, one-bedrooms and larger homes, and the year-on-year comparison is the steadier guide. On that measure, resale pricing was broadly flat to slightly firmer.
Rents and the prime end
Leasing remained active. Business Bay recorded 3,114 rental contracts in September, about 4% more than in September 2025. The area's residential gross yield for the month was about 4.5%, lower than a year ago as prices had risen faster than rents over the previous twelve months.
At the very top of the area the market behaves differently and the samples are small. The Lana, the 39 residences above Dorchester Collection's Dubai hotel, with interiors by Gilles & Boissier and OMNIYAT Atelier available to owners who want to personalise further, shows a gross yield of 6.5% over the last twelve months in my Rental Index, but that rests on only two market leases. It is a reference point, not a trend, and past rents do not guarantee future income.
Elsewhere at the prime end, the most active project in the three months to 23 October was an OMNIYAT launch, with 38 registered sales at a median of around AED 5,978 per sq ft. That is close to three times the area median, and a reminder that "Business Bay" as an average says little about its best addresses.
What I would take from it
Supply is the variable I watch most closely. The data shows 40 projects and around 30,000 homes in the pipeline for Business Bay, and that will keep pressure on mid-market resale pricing as buildings complete. Finished, well-specified homes in the better buildings tend to be insulated from that, because the buyer pool for them is different.
For a buyer, a quieter launch calendar can mean more time to negotiate on completed stock. For a seller, the resale evidence is steady rather than falling, which supports pricing from recent comparable sales rather than from last year's off-plan headlines.
If you own or are considering a home in Business Bay or Marasi Bay and would like the evidence for your building specifically, send me a private enquiry.
Source: DXB Interact market data based on Dubai Land Department registrations, retrieved 23 October 2026. Figures are medians and totals for the Business Bay area (all property types unless stated). Quarterly figures cover July to September 2026; September figures are for that month only. The Lana figures are from the alihmoud.com Rental Index, updated 2 October 2026 (October 2025 to September 2026). Gross yields are before costs. Past rents and prices do not guarantee future results.